Stoat's First Debate on the Use of the Lake Korttajarvi (Tiljander) Proxies by Mann et al (2008)

There has been a lot of digital ink spilled on the use of the Lake Korttajarvi varve series in the long-term temperature reconstructions that are at the heart of Mann et al’s 2008 PNAS paper. Unfortunately, there haven’t been very many informed conversations in which the issues are discussed in a knowledgable and technically-focused manner by supporters and detractors of Mann’s uses of the proxies.

Three comments threads at William M. Connolley’s blog Stoat come closest, in my opinion.

Although a couple of obstacles became evident over the course of the three conversations there (Oh dear oh dear oh dear oh dear, Tiljander, and Tiljander, again).

One is that WMC often responds to critics by inserting remarks into the middle of their arguments, making those arguments harder to follow. Another is the two-edged sword represented by his liberal comment-truncation and deletion policy: the tactic can keep conversations on track, but it can also cause the facts and reasoning marshalled by critics to appear weaker and more disjointed than is actually the case.

This weekend, I reviewed the comments thread of Oh dear oh dear oh dear oh dear, revisiting some of the key points debated there. For context, the post itself is a mocking criticism of Roger Pielke, Jr., contending that Pielke “doesn’t’ understand” Mann et al’s use of the Lake Korttajarvi varve proxies. Most interesting is that WMC is an accomplished software engineer and climate modeler who has written extensively about sea ice and warming trends in the Antarctic, and who has authored posts at the flagship AGW Consensus blog RealClimate.org defending and defining that Consensus--prominent ongoing topics at Stoat.

An abridged and annotated version of that post's comments thread follows the "read more" break. For clarity, I have moved WMC’s interspersed comments to the end of each comment. I have also added some of my own thoughts; these are limited to the paragraphs that begin with the text "AMac 12/7/09".

Off-topic Thoughts Addressed to a Dendrologist Visiting Climate Audit

At about the 113rd comment, a dendrologist entered the thread of Miracles and Strip Bark Standardization at ClimateAudit.org. "CB" began"

November 23rd, 2009 at 4:30 pm

I have to agree with Rob Wilson - most of this discussion reveals a fundamental lack of understanding and experience with the subject [of strip bark analysis]...

Happily, CB returned to address technical issues in dendrology and climate reconstruction.

Primary Links: Mann '08 and the Korttajarvi (Tiljander) Proxies

I'm compiling links to webpages that address the controversy surrounding Mann et al (2008)'s use of the lakebed sediment record from Lake Korttajarvi, Finland in their reconstructions of global climate, 200 AD to 1850.

See also Blog Links: Mann '08 and the Korttajarvi (Tiljander) Varve Proxies

Blog Links: Mann '08 and the Korttajarvi (Tiljander) Varve Proxies

Compilation of links to blog posts and comments that address the controversy surrounding Mann et al (2008)'s use of the lakebed sediment record from Lake Korttajarvi, Finland in their reconstructions of global climate, 200 AD to 1850.

See also Primary Links: Mann '08 and the Korttajarvi (Tiljander) Varve Proxies

The Newly-Discovered Jarvykortta Proxy: Relevant to the Tiljander Varve Series?

[Update 9 March 2010 -- I've rewritten "The Newly-Discovered JarvyKortta Proxy" making its points clearer and adding some graphs. What follows on this page is for completeness' sake.

The updated post is here.]

Norman Wolmark's Perspective on the History of Breast Cancer Therapy

Dr. Wolmark gave a brief talk on this subject at an autumn 2009 conference sponsored by the diagnostic company Genomic Health. It was a real eye-opener, on the messy, lurching nature of progress at the intersection of Science and Art that defines clinical practice.

In a broader sense, the themes discussed here are important whenever the results of Scientific Inquiry have important impacts in the wider world. Policy decisions are the result of political contests; the application of scientific insights will be only a modest ingredient for this recipe.